Friday, March 21, 2008
LNG Tanker Trivia: 55 Hiroshima Bombs
55 Hiroshima A-Bombs - According to a study called Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security, should the unthinkable happen, the energy content of ONE standard liquid natural gas tanker, at 22 billion gallons of expanded gas, is equivalent to .7 megatons of TNT ( that's 1.4 billion pounds of dynamite). To put it another way, the explosive force on one LNG tanker is equal, roughly, to 55 Hiroshima bombs!
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pile one the fear! You'll soon be riding Dick Cheney's coat tails.....
"Soon be riding Dick Cheney's coat tails"
Well, you know, I must not be as smart as you because I don't have a "Hoot-N-Hell's" idea of what you are talking about.
If we are not careful we could witness to land being taken from private citizens to the benefit of a private corporation by government.
Does our State or Nation's Cosntitutions have any value or meaning to you?
Patrick,
I don't always agree with you nor agree with you on LNG issues.
What you quote is 100% optimum output. This occurs only in a pressurized condition which is A) not the case with LNG ships and B) won't be the case in a LNG "leak" because of unconfinement due to open space and the lighter than air nature.
The real situation would be more like a pilates on your natural gas stove reflective to the size of the hole which would effect the output of the gas coming out of the tanks into open air.
It would be dangerous on the ship or building facility with approximately 1000 feet at best at the same level as the ship. Maybe 2000-4000 feet in an elevated situation in the downwind direction. If you have an elevation of 300-600 feet above the elevation of the ship or LNG facility where the leak may occur.
You only get a portion of the effect and it becomes more a fire then anything "explosive". If I have 1 Million gallons of kerosene and piping it to my lamp in a small volume - I have alot of energy to be equivelent to alot of A-Bombs but if it is not being fed in large volumes then it ouldn't be that serious.
Do you know that you have enough atomic matter that if atomically rearranged to be equivelent to like 3000+ Atomic bombs.
It all boils down to protons,neutrons and electrons, man.Energy yield of the atoms in a human being re-arranged into uranium 235 or 238 and have the perfect chain reaction sequence would just be mind boggleing.
Look at the situation in a realistic situation - less then 1%. Is your oven going to be an A-Bomb? The gas has to be confined. You only have at best a 3-5% range for about 5 seconds and once that flash combustion burns it'll stabilize to a smaller flame. That's it.
Natural gas works the same here as on your stove. The hole is your regulator.
Have you, Balkins, been keeping up with the sophistication of "Open Ocean Piracy".
And of course you know an LNG tanker will be crewed by, what, 25-27 non-militant creww and officers.
Once it's commandeered.....problem over, they have "The Weapon" and "Time" to make it lethal.
Yeah, yeah. I heard all about it but anyone that does their math knows that it wouldn't be as effective.
Piracy can go in two form. One is more monetary gain and the other for weapon. LNG might serve better in monetary gain then weapon.
Take a moment for what terorism is: It is a message.
All messages have a from: and a to: and a message. Who is it from? Importantly, who is the message to? and What is the message.
Every word of a message must be loud and clear to whom the message is to. How is that loud and clear for us as citizens or the government. The message must be loudest and clearest to whom it is to. So who will this be loudest and clearest to?
Now who is the message from?
Investigation would lead the primary target being NorthernStar and LNG industry. The message from must be from someone or group of people with a beef or anger towards LNG and NorthernStar.
My primary suspects would be anti-LNG folks. Sir, you are now on the Homeland Security primary suspect list for potential suspects for terrorist plots and any attack on an LNG ship to NortherStar facility.
If the target is us in Clatsop County, wouldn't an attack on the bridge (some C-4 or Symtex) or an attack on Astoria itself be more louder and clear to us? Importance is loud and clear.
But why us?
The terrorists are more incline on a larger profile target to make message more loud and clear on national level.
Attack on LNG has more impact on LNG. Not even Clatsop County which is not LNG dependent anyway.
Think for a moment, so many factors are leading to unlikelyness for such an attack it wouldn't make sense. If someone wanted to make such a statement to Astoria, wouldn't just commandeering an oil tanker and slamming it right into the docks make more sense? Wouldn't they already done it. This is the trust and duty of our Coast Guard that keeps us safe. They do this on a regular basis. Coast Guard does boardings on all such ships and will do so on LNG ships as well. How many incidents have we had that we don't hear about? There is plentiful but they do our job. Most cases were pathetic attempts or someone lost it and needed straightening. We haven't had any situations to this scale.
We have a fairly secure river.
You left out "Ideology" as a motivator to commandeer an LNG Tanker.
And when you get your hands on what equates to 1.4 billion punds of TNT you got a weapon of mass destruction and a hell of a "bargaining tool/statment maker"
Look at the symbolism in 9-11.
Granted, the threat is stronger then the act but threats don't kill except heartattack caused by stressing and fear.
Ideology is one thing but ultimate motive for action will take the components I mentioned already. Bargaining chip, yes but that can be done easier on open seas and targeting real targets.
They aren't comandeering the ship in the Columbia River. They are doing that in international waters where laws don't entirely apply.
If they are going to use it for attack, they are going for Puget Sound or Portland or Los Angeles (Long Beach Port) or San Fransico. Think of who are they after.
Bunch of old farts and hillbillies in Astoria or the government elites.
The key is the message, Ideology is important in understanding the drive but is irrelevent. Each terrorist has their own ideology ( a motivating drive ) but the importance is who they are after and the message. NorthernStar is just a company so attacking it won't have the impact on a global economic level. That means the issue will be more on the lines of disgrunted employee or anti-LNG sentiment by some wanting to get rid of it and because of anger bottled up they explode into irrational handling of the issue.
First thing is I do support alternative energy and importance of improving the energy efficiency of our life-style but remember people won't want to live less. They want their life-style. Can we make that life-style more efficient. Yes. However there is a point where you have only two options. Option 1: Meet the energy needs as population grow world wide. Option 2: Reduce our lifestyle and that means less technology like no TV, computer, refridgerator and eventually back to the stone age for the human race.
Option 1 solution is to diversify our energy sources and LNG is part of it. Other myriad of energy sources will also be.
Bottom Line. Will Clatsop County be part of that solution or will we go with Option 2 until we are in the stone age.
What would you choose, Patrick ?
Bradwood Landing seems to be the best site for LNG in our community especially when it is out of the way and out of site from the main area of traffic in our tourism centric core area of Astoria-Warrenton. The ships aren't that ugly. Actually, some of the new ones look better then the oil tankers (the ones with out the double or tripple domes).
I don't think we been working sincerely with NorthernStar and that is not going to make them very willing to work with us. I rather this be a good relationship. They may even donate money into the community in areas of importance to the community. Imagine a $250,000 donation to Clatsop Community Action one year and similar amount to the College and other amounts. This is on top of taxes to the County.
This is stuff that they are not going to write down a specific amount that they WILL provide to the community. Lets look at what our natural gas company does in this community. They support in some way or form to our community theaters and other community related stuff.
I would not step in the way of economy nor would I step in the way of implimenting alternative energy sources which will take years to implement as well.
Will the LNG directly supply us? Probably not but might. It still effects the supply and demand which will reduce cost on us citizens, here. Along with alternative energy sources.
Global Heating has been going on for the last 100,000 years. How do you account for the global warming cycle for 100,000 years. You can't blame the humans for it. If you look at the past 100,000 years, we have been essentially warming at this basic rate with some up and down moments.
It is all cycles. So, scientists needs to be careful about looking at Earth in a digital fashion but that it is analog like and not linear or smooth. It is like the stock market.
How far could a tanker make its way upriver towards Portland before someone would realize something nefarious was afoot.
A thousand foot long LNG tanker commandeered by a crack crew of Pirate/Terrorists with access to each tank and its valve system to start the vaporization process, many set charges ready to activate at the right moment.
And here Ann Samuelson fawning over making amends, willing to trade off a $13600.00 stipend to our D.A. while the LNG Speculators get a pretty much free pass on Public Safety Accountability and a set program for all involved?
I would hope that would not be the case but reading between the lines it has every sign that such a thing could happen.
And why would not the Megler Bridge and The Longview Bridge be excellent candidates for destruction to sympolize the cutting of the Life Blodd of two U.S. States and look at us here.
Sitting ducks.
No security at all.
No program for an LNG emergency concocted or accidental.
What you want to bet some group of zealots couldn't go to a Portland Yacht Broker, but a BIG Motor Yacht, sail of towards here, stops somewhere in between, load that baby full of a homebrew, Oklahoma City explosives up to the gumwalls, sail her on down to Astoria, find a berth at west mooring basin, park her, rent a car, light her up, then calmly leave with a big chunk of Astoria blown to smithereens.
Yeah, like I said. LNG like anything has their inherent dangers to be respected and I know and we know that NorthernStar would not build facilities that would be of serious threat to their own people if operated properly. Thankfully, LNG is much more safely maintainable then Nuclear.
This is why they don't want to locate their facilities very close to any property that would get damaged under any reasonably perceivable condition.
I don't think any of them intends to harm us. There is no real threat because of the importance of safety their employees are fully aware of. There are remote chances for problems. You don't smoke on an oil tanker where your cigarette might get into the oil.
Same idea with LNG.
We don't see alot of people complaining about the gas bomb we drive every day or the gas bomb under our streets, sidewalks, houses and buildings or the gas bombs on the roads like the propane delivery trucks. All of which can and would pose a greater threat to lives because it is among us. You can be stopped at an intersection within 5 feet of a propane truck and it could be detonated right on the road. Potentially killing people in that immediate vacinity.
Typically a loss of 4-20 people easily. Imagine this a school bus nat an intersection next to propane truck in other lane. Wow, that is 20-30 lives right there.
We don't even think about it. I'm not calling for us to stop having vehicles and propane trucks but to have some sanity and common sense to the issue. The real issue is we need to be honest about the situation and what the reality of such cases be. Astoria is not the most viable target for any major terrorist group. If there was a terrorist attack against LNG, the terrorist is most likely anti-LNG folks. He or she or them would be wanting to make the message to the LNG industry and they won't be wanting to effect what they perceive as the "innocent" folks - that is the everyday joe blow. In their mind, and ideology - anyone working for LNG companies are the enemy and that is their target. The target would be isolated with reletively minimal collateral damage. They wouldn't be out to destroy the ship if it is too close to the town itself and average folks. Psychologically, they don't want to kill innocent people. Their beef is with LNG folks.
So, here before you is a basic profile of what a terrorist attack on LNG would be like and the type of person who would be attacking LNG ships or facilities.
I doubt anyone in Clatsop County would go out of their way to do such an act.
So are they that bad ? Why the hostility ? That is my concern with the anti-LNG protesters.
No one is screaming at Northwest Natural Gas Co. who pipe "natural gas" in gaseous state to us.
I question the logic and sense of much of this protest. I am just trying to wrap my mind around this to figure out. If they build there facility, it is most likely that there would not be a single major incident of any kind from the time they build the facility for another 50-100+ years. Provide proper operation and maintainance of the facility, there will probably not be any major issue. Most of it will be some shipping channel timing issues to be worked out and get things ironed out.
After a few years of operations, we be onto other matters and not thinking one way or another about NorthernStar or any other LNG company. It'll just be part od everyday life in the community.
Change is the challenge. Those times will be tough but once things happen, things will then work out. In either case, it is not the end of the world. Even for Clatsop County.
Patrick, anything can happen. I could import a nuclear bomb and blow up the jetty or either bridge.
The plot is potential but there is alot of other potential attack.
However, it is kinda far stretching for the message to be interpreted by the target. What good is the message if your target doesn't get it.
We can talk about theory and practice but granted, there is security involved. Why do you think their is a security zone with escort and Coast Guard Boarding protocol which requires all boarding to be armed boarding with all members of the ship(s) to be potentially armed and dangerous. This is military protocol.
I know Coast Guard personnel that done ship boarding and they are always armed and prepared to shoot on site. In light of 9/11, these protocols are heighten with ships being potentially armed and do this on many occassion before they even get into the Columbia River itself. So FYI: This is done on ALL ships coming in. Once things are secured, then the ships will be allowed to move forward.
Lets think about it. In 15 minutes, we can have armed fighter jets out of Bremerton take the ship out. Lets think about it. So, threat neutralized in 20 minutes.
I think a terrorist would have to think smarter than that. Is the threat our problem or Portland's problem. Now, if you are in Portland, wouldn't you do a terrorist attack at the Trailblazers? or up in Seattle?
The message must be as loud and clear and not misunderstood by your target. Terrorist rule of terroism.
Attack on LNG can be disregarded as an industry issue and not an attack against the US people. To a terrorist, that is an insult.
There is an ego issue in these zealots. Ego goes with the territory, my friend.
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