Coincidence Theory - Ted Thomas - January, 2011
Let us not forget that there were two fires on the night of the 16th in the same structure. For those of you unfamiliar with the Astoria water front; the Cannery Cafe, located on Sixth Street, is connected to No 10 Sixth Street by a very wide and undamaged pier.
According to the U.S. Fire Administration there were an estimated 505,500 structure fires reported in the USA, in 2000, of which 5.5% were stores and offices like the pier. That works out to 27802.5 fires in about 4.7 million commercial buildings during that year.
Over a period of one year one fire occurred in every one hundred and sixty three commercial structures. The chance of a randomly ignited fire occurring on each particular day is 1:(365.25x169.05 ) or 61745.51 to 1.
The chance that a randomly ignited fire will coincide with another randomly ignited fire on the same day in the same structure is the product of the independent probability of a fire occurring on any specific day. In other words the probability that two fires could randomly ignite in different locations of the same structure on the same day is 3,812,508,314 to 1.
I am absolutely certain over time this event can occur somewhere in the US once every 756.92 years (if the average number of commercial structures was/will be 4.7 million).
So let me be the first to say that there is no proof that the fires at the foot of sixth street were anything other than a coincidence. Yes, that's right folks, it is entirely possible that it was just a coincidence independent of the owner's financial or personal incentives.
Having overheard speculation that the double conflagration was other than coincidental I would like to say; Shame! Shame on those that would accuse anyone of setting those dual infernos let alone the bereaved victim of a double misfortune who might be the beneficiary of an insurance policy.
What are you all going to think of yourselves when no one is accused of Arson? Boy there will sure be egg on your faces then!
There's not been any revelation that those twins of pyrolytic devastation had human agency kindling their combustion. That bilaterallity of bedtime blazes, that late night duet of phlogistic pyres, that scintillating, binary, nocturnal, scorching, sea of fire on sixth street has an undeniable measurable likelihood of being coincidence.
The fact that Police and Fire Officials have not produced proof to the contrary or made any arrests is an unmistakable demonstration of just how good they are!
Ray Bradbury would be appalled! God help us all!!
Let us not forget that there were two fires on the night of the 16th in the same structure. For those of you unfamiliar with the Astoria water front; the Cannery Cafe, located on Sixth Street, is connected to No 10 Sixth Street by a very wide and undamaged pier.
According to the U.S. Fire Administration there were an estimated 505,500 structure fires reported in the USA, in 2000, of which 5.5% were stores and offices like the pier. That works out to 27802.5 fires in about 4.7 million commercial buildings during that year.
Over a period of one year one fire occurred in every one hundred and sixty three commercial structures. The chance of a randomly ignited fire occurring on each particular day is 1:(365.25x169.05 ) or 61745.51 to 1.
The chance that a randomly ignited fire will coincide with another randomly ignited fire on the same day in the same structure is the product of the independent probability of a fire occurring on any specific day. In other words the probability that two fires could randomly ignite in different locations of the same structure on the same day is 3,812,508,314 to 1.
I am absolutely certain over time this event can occur somewhere in the US once every 756.92 years (if the average number of commercial structures was/will be 4.7 million).
So let me be the first to say that there is no proof that the fires at the foot of sixth street were anything other than a coincidence. Yes, that's right folks, it is entirely possible that it was just a coincidence independent of the owner's financial or personal incentives.
Having overheard speculation that the double conflagration was other than coincidental I would like to say; Shame! Shame on those that would accuse anyone of setting those dual infernos let alone the bereaved victim of a double misfortune who might be the beneficiary of an insurance policy.
What are you all going to think of yourselves when no one is accused of Arson? Boy there will sure be egg on your faces then!
There's not been any revelation that those twins of pyrolytic devastation had human agency kindling their combustion. That bilaterallity of bedtime blazes, that late night duet of phlogistic pyres, that scintillating, binary, nocturnal, scorching, sea of fire on sixth street has an undeniable measurable likelihood of being coincidence.
The fact that Police and Fire Officials have not produced proof to the contrary or made any arrests is an unmistakable demonstration of just how good they are!
Ray Bradbury would be appalled! God help us all!!
4 comments:
What a fresh steaming load of bovine excremental blithering nonsense.
Dontcha believe in the possibility that it could be a coinkydink?
You have any current information to the contrary?
I suppose you covered the fire yourself and you know different or is it you may know a little more than most because you may be a little more intimate with the real reason it started...yes?
current information is that Thomas is a nutbuger.
Anonymous said...
"current information is that Thomas is a nutbuger."
So "Anonym" you don't see any potential in the possibility of all this being a mere coincidence either?
You have a more sane theory you would like to share with us as to how this happened?
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